business metrics guide

Customer Lifetime Value Models Explained

Compare simple, churn-based, cohort and discounted customer lifetime value models and choose a method appropriate for your available data.

No single CLV formula fits every business.

Simple purchase model

Average order value × purchase frequency × lifespan × margin is transparent and useful for planning. Its weakness is the assumption that averages remain stable.

Churn-based model

Subscription businesses sometimes approximate lifespan as 1 ÷ churn rate. This is sensitive to period choice and assumes a stable hazard of cancellation.

Cohort model

Track cumulative contribution by acquisition cohort. This reveals channel and seasonal differences without forcing one retention curve onto every customer.

Discounted model

Finance-oriented models discount future cash flows and may include survival probabilities. They are more precise but require reliable historical data and explicit assumptions.

Use the simplest model that supports the decision, and label whether the output represents revenue, gross profit or contribution.

Sources

This guide is educational and does not provide financial, accounting, tax or legal advice.

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